Key points
Years and Dollars is a TUC research paper on longevity and the Black–White wealth gap in the United States. It is not peer reviewed.
Today the median Black household holds about 14 cents for every dollar held by the median White household. Under current conditions, the model projects 21 cents in 2100.
No single lever closes the gap by 2100. A one-time transfer alone fades over time.
Equal earnings, opportunity, returns and survival raise the median ratio to 0.90 by 2100. Equal saving as well raises it to 1.07.
Equal conditions would add about $22.8 trillion to Black household wealth by 2075, in real 2024 dollars.
About the paper
The full title is Years and Dollars: Longevity and the Black–White Wealth Gap in the United States. The authors are Damon Kirk and Steven Farrar. Version 2.1 came out on October 2, 2026. It runs to 60 pages with 89 references. It is not peer reviewed.
Read the full paper, Years and Dollars (60 pages, version 2.1).
Where the gap stands
The paper compares median household wealth. Today the median Black household holds about 14 cents for every dollar held by the median White household. That is a ratio of 0.14.
Under current conditions, the model moves that ratio only to 0.21 by 2100. In other words, about 21 cents per dollar, three generations from now.
How much do shorter lives explain?
The paper starts with survival. In the 2024 U.S. life tables, life expectancy at birth was 74.8 years for non-Hispanic Black Americans and 78.9 years for non-Hispanic White Americans. Most of that difference, 77 to 79%, came from deaths before age 65.
In net worth, the effect of shorter lives is small. It explains about 1.4 to 1.6% of the gap, depending on the measure.
Outside net worth, the effect is larger. Shorter survival costs a Black man entering work in 2024 an expected $15,500 of Social Security wealth, in present value. It also adds $45,450 to the earnings a Black couple aged 30 can expect to lose to a partner’s death.
How the model works
To look ahead, the authors built a microsimulation of household wealth. It follows simulated households as they earn, save, invest, pass on wealth and die. The model is calibrated to the 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances. The authors also ran it backward from 1992 to test it against history, with mixed success.
Each scenario runs 500 times, with 20,000 households in each run. The results report the median across runs, with a range.
What closes the gap
The paper tests policy levers alone and in combination. In its best-fitting specification, it finds:
A one-time transfer alone fades. A transfer of $250,000 to each Black household in 2030 lifts the ratio to 0.93 at once. Under unchanged conditions, it falls back to 0.26 by 2100.
Single levers fall short. Baby bonds of up to $50,000 for children born from 2025 reach 0.27 by 2100. Survival parity alone also reaches 0.27.
Equal conditions get close. Equal earnings and opportunity by 2040, equal investment returns by 2035, and equal survival by 2050 raise the median ratio to 0.90 by 2100. The ratio reaches at least 0.9 in 48% of runs.
Equal saving as well closes it. If Black households' saving and support to relatives also match by 2035, the ratio reaches 1.07 by 2100.
A transfer on top closes it early. With equal conditions and equal saving in place, the one-time transfer closes the gap from 2030 in half the runs, and the gap stays closed.
Equal conditions would add about $22.8 trillion to Black household wealth by 2075, in real 2024 dollars.
Why combinations matter
A transfer changes the starting point. It does not change the forces that widen the gap: unequal pay and opportunity, and unequal access to assets that grow. When those forces stay, the gap returns. When they stop, the starting difference still takes generations to work off. That is why the paper finds that only combinations close the gap.
Limits to keep in mind
The authors are direct about the model’s limits:
The paper is not peer reviewed.
The saving gap is a fitted result, not a measured behavior. What would move it, and whether it reflects saving at all, is unknown.
With one saving schedule for both groups, a worse fit, equal conditions reach 1.01 by 2100.
The model understates past White wealth growth. So its current-conditions path is probably optimistic.
Why a money company studies this
The Understanding Company builds Vueni, a card and account that connects purchases to the context around them. The paper also reviews research on stress spending, alongside eight other wealth gaps. We publish our research so readers can check our thinking as well as our product.
Keep reading
Questions
What is the Black–White wealth gap today, according to Years and Dollars?
The median Black household holds about 14 cents for every dollar held by the median White household. Under current conditions, the model projects about 21 cents by 2100.
Would a one-time payment close the wealth gap?
Not on its own. In the model, a $250,000 transfer per Black household in 2030 lifts the ratio to 0.93 at once, but it falls back to 0.26 by 2100 under unchanged conditions.
Is Years and Dollars peer reviewed?
No. Version 2.1, dated October 2, 2026, is not peer reviewed. The authors list its limits, including that the saving gap is a fitted result rather than a measured behavior.
Vueni is an invite‑only card and account.
Join the waitlist