We study how money and health affect each other, starting with how much shorter lives cost Black families. Each paper comes with its data and code, and we will publish product test results whether they help us or not.
Working paper · Version 2.1 and the No Lump Sum supplement · October 2026 · Not peer reviewed
Years and Dollars
How much of the Black–White wealth gap do shorter lives explain, and what would close it? The median Black household holds 15 cents for every White dollar; left alone, 21 cents by 2100. A health state for every adult shows what recurring changes can do without a one-time payment: health parity is worth far more than survival alone, Social Security levers almost nothing for this gap, and every recurring lever together reaches 58 cents. Only closing the rest of the earnings gap closes it, in the 2070s. A one-time transfer buys time and does not hold.
By Damon Kirk and Steven Farrar · 60-page PDF and a 31-page supplement · replication files for both
Black to White median wealth, 2022 to 2100 · median of 120 runs per pathEvery recurring lever: 0.58 · plus the earnings residual: 1.23
What we’re working on
How we publish
Methods in the open
Every life-table number we compute ships with the script and public data behind it. The engine’s code is proprietary; its output for the worked example is included.
Results either way
We plan to register the Calm Mode evaluation before launch and to publish its results whether or not they favor the product. Nothing is registered yet.
Sources, checked and dated
Each paper says which sources were checked, when, and how. Our October 1, 2026 check of version 1.0 found errors; version 1.1 corrected them, and the paper’s version history lists every change since.