Explore the data | Years and Dollars | The Understanding Company

By state

Where the gains land

In the paper’s one-saving-schedule run, the only one apportioned to states, equal conditions add about $20.7 trillion to Black household wealth by 2075 ($22.8 trillion in the headline specification). This map shows where it would land. 57% of the gain falls in the South, where most Black households live; the shares do not depend on the specification.

Top 25%above $670 bn
50–75%$168–670 bn
25–50%$16–168 bn
Bottom 25%up to $16 bn
Small survey sample

Hover a state for its numbers; select one to compare it with the rest.Tap a state to see its numbers below and compare it with the rest.

Choose a state

All 50 states and DC

United States

Select a state on the map or in the list to see its numbers here.

Under equal conditions

Wealth added by 2050: $7.2 trillion
Wealth added by 2075: $20.7 trillion
Income added in 2050, a year: $1.97 trillion
Added income, share of 2024 GDP: 4.7%

Households, 2020–2024

Black households: 15,341,883
White non-Hispanic households: 82,459,951
Median income, Black: $54,974
Median income, White: $87,069
Average income gap: $44,422
Homeownership, Black / White: 44.3% / 73.1%

Top 10 by wealth added by 2075

Apportioned from the national model by each state’s Black–White household income shortfall (ACS 2020–2024), not simulated by state. Ranking by each state’s share of Black households instead gives a rank correlation of 0.98. Small samples: AK, ID, ME, MT, NH, ND, SD, VT, WY. The ± is a 90% margin of error. Read the method in the PDF, page 30

Simulated paths

Paths to 2100

The ratio of Black to White median household wealth under each path, as the median of 500 runs, with the 90% band for the highlighted path. Choose which paths to show, then move across the chart to read any year.

Equal conditions + transfer. Earnings and mobility parity by 2040, Black households’ support to relatives outside the household at the White rate by 2035, equal returns by 2035, Black death rates converging to White rates by 2050, and a one-time transfer of $250,000 to each Black household in 2030. 91% of runs end 2100 at 0.9 or above; half the runs stay there from 2068 or earlier.

Highlighted path
90% of runs
Other paths
Parity, 1.0
Gap closed, 0.9

2100Ratio of median wealth, median of 500 runs · 90% of runs in parentheses

Combinations

Build a combination

No single lever closes the gap by 2100. Combine them and see what the simulation found for that exact combination. We screened 512 combinations and reran the 19 most promising at full size.

Earnings and mobility parityBlack workers reach the White income distribution at the same rank; support to relatives outside the household falls to the White rate with it.

Baby bondsAn endowment for children born from 2025, paid at household formation and falling with parents’ income.

One-time transferPaid to each Black household in 2030.

Other levers

Equal returns: the same portfolios and returns, without the housing-distress gap.Survival parity: Black death rates converge to White rates.Vueni: the product with its planning-assumption effects.

Ratio of median wealth, Black to White

20500.16

20750.21

21000.26

Runs that close the gap by 2100

0%by 2050 0% · by 2075 0%

Does not close the gap by 2100

Closes means the median ratio is at least 0.9 in that year and at each later checkpoint through 2100, in at least 90% of runs.

500 full-size runs · 10 million households

How the combinations were tested, PDF page 27

Gains

What closing it adds

Closing the gap changes more than balance sheets. Under equal conditions Black households would hold more wealth and earn more, and Black Americans would live longer.

Equal conditions against current conditions, in

Economy · 2075

Black household wealth added: $20.7 trillionTotal $25.8 trillion against $4.9 trillion
Income added, a year: $2.04 trillion3.7% of 2024 U.S. GDP
Added spending from added wealth, a year: $661bnAt 3.2 cents per dollar of wealth a year
Added to the median Black household’s wealth: $288,900Ratio of median wealth 0.84 against 0.21

Life and family, Black Americans · 2075

Life expectancy at 40, men: 43.2years+2.7 yearsfrom 40.5 under current conditions
Life expectancy at 40, women: 46.2years+1.3 yearsfrom 44.9 under current conditions
Deaths at ages 25–64, per 100,000 a year: 229−112from 341 under current conditions
Men who die between 25 and 65: 12.2%−6.2 pointsfrom 18.4% under current conditions
Couples aged 30 who lose a partner before 67: 22.7%−9.4 pointsfrom 32.1% under current conditions
Children who lose both parents by 45: 3.2%−3.1 pointsfrom 6.3% under current conditions

Medians across 500 runs. Added wealth, income, and the median household’s gain are medians of run-by-run differences from current conditions, which share the same random draws. Equal conditions: earnings and mobility parity by 2040, Black households’ support to relatives outside the household at the White rate by 2035, equal returns by 2035, and Black death rates converging to White rates by 2050. Life outcomes are period measures from the simulated death rates; in both paths mortality also falls as wealth rises. Spending is a demand-side estimate that ignores any offsetting change in policy. Full table in the PDF, page 29

Company note

Vueni’s part

Vueni is the product we are building. The model sets reach targets for it from effects we assume and still have to test. Choose a reach to see what the model expects.

Share of eligible households Vueni reaches

Members in 2030: 17.1millionEligible households of every race
Black members in 2030: 4.1million
Added to the median Black household’s wealth by 2050: $5,90090% interval $5,900–$6,000

Ratio of median wealth in 2050, with Vueni at 50% reach

Current conditions+0.011from 0.159

Equal conditions+0.015from 0.503

With equal conditions, Vueni adds $13,900 to the median Black household by 2050 (90% interval $13,500–$14,200).

Planning assumptions, not measured effects. Members are assumed to raise saving by 2 points of income, halve high-cost interest, cut stress spending by 0.5% of income, halve the housing-distress gap, and earn 0.5 points more on positive wealth, with 90% staying active each year from 2027. Each of these will be tested with members. Even at full reach the 2050 ratio moves by +0.021: Vueni cannot close the gap alone.

Eligible households are those under 67 with net worth below the national median for their age. Effects are medians of run-by-run differences from no product, in 1,000 runs of 12,000 households for each level of reach; intervals are 90% bootstrap intervals for that median. Reach targets in the PDF, page 43